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Newsletter December 2007 |
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This months newsletter opens with a seasonal comment on staff parties and gifts. We have also included an update on new legislation pending; a timely reminder for self assessment tax payers who have still not supplied their tax return details for last year; a note on the transfer of unused married couples allowance; and finally an update on the proposed new tax credit for claimants of certain enhanced capital allowances. The next newsletter will be published on Tuesday 8th January 2008. May we take this opportunity to wish all our readers a very happy and prosperous new year.
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How will the Global Debt Crisis affect you? |
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There has been much publicity about the global debt crisis and the effect that it has had on financial institutions. However, there has been little said about how it may effect the ordinary member of the public. The view from most economists is that the crisis will have the effect of slowing the rate of economic growth to a point below previous forecasts. This will have a dual effect for the ordinary investor.
In the first instance we should see a steady reduction in the Bank of England base rate over the next twelve months. The forecast is that it will be back down to 5% by the end of 2008. Although this is good news for mortgage borrowers, it will of course mean that deposit based investors will have a reduced return.
Normally a reduction in interest rates would stimulate the housing market and result in an increase in capital values. But in this instance this could be counteracted by two other factors. The global debt crisis has resulted in most high street lenders tightening the lending criteria being applied to many borrowers. A reduction in the income multiples and the tightening of the rules on self certification and credit scoring may mean that less potential buyers will be coming to the market place. History has shown us that the rise in house prices tends to be cyclical and as we had a steady period of growth we would normally expect the market to be flat for the next few years. We believe that the contribution of these two factors will result in a continuation of the current low growth in the housing market.
Global equity markets remain worried about the effect of credit problems on economic activity, even in emerging economies. A slow down in the global economy could result in a slow down in demand. This could effect those markets dependant on the export of goods and services for economic growth. However, a fall in interest rates in the UK should help counteract the weaker economic growth.
In the medium term it is forecast that economic growth will continue to rise at significant levels and the medium to long term forecast for equity markets is still good. In volatile markets it is important that investors keep their nerve and do not sell their investments at the lowest point. It is particularly important to maintain contact with their advisors to make sure that the investment mediums that they are in are still relevant and the sectors and asset classes match their attitude towards investment risk. At DS Financial Management Limited we make sure that our clients are invested in funds that have excellent track records and good prospects for future growth. For further advice on investments and other financial services matters, please contact Carol or Adrian.
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DISCLAIMER - PLEASE NOTE: The ideas shared with you in this email are intended to inform rather than advise. Taxpayers circumstances do vary and if you feel that tax strategies we have outlined may be beneficial it is important that you contact us before implementation. If you do or do not take action as a result of reading this newsletter, before receiving our written endorsement, we will accept no responsibility for any financial loss incurred. |
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Dean Statham, Dean Statham is a limited liability partnership, registered for VAT under reference 812 0016 96. Partners in the firm are members of the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales (ICAEW). This body has its headquarters in the UK and its rules of professional conduct can be obtained from its web site. Dean Statham are authorised to act as statutory auditors by the ICAEW. |
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